Fantasy trade projections
Where available, ESPN full-season forecasts are converted to per-appearance rates. Remaining projected appearances are forecast appearances minus observed appearances, capped by the available team schedule. This conversion is a BenchWise calculation, not a separate ESPN rest-of-season forecast.
The BenchWise baseline blends observed current and prior-season rates when there are at least 3 current games and 10 prior games. For metrics covered in both samples, current-season weight is the smaller of 60% and current games ÷ (current games + 20). With 10 current games the weight is one third. Unsupported metrics remain missing rather than becoming zero.
Projected appearances use the observed share of completed team games and the available schedule. This is an appearance baseline, not an injury recovery or coaching deployment forecast. Consensus averages the available projected totals for each metric. Yahoo is currently a scoring preset, not a connected projection feed. ESPN and BenchWise contribute only where their data is available.
The trade fairness bar
The base weights are 50% remaining-season lineup benefit, 20% near-term benefit, 20% player outlook and risk, and 10% the selected fantasy-playoff window. Near-term combines the next 7 and 30 days equally. The periods overlap intentionally; the index is a weighted comparison, not an extra point total.
Only supported components contribute, and their weights are rescaled. Without enough roster context, the tool uses a labelled package estimate instead of pretending to know every usable start, drop and replacement. Available risk evidence may include reported availability, observed consistency and model disagreement. Missing evidence is identified in “Why this score?”
The scale runs from favoring the other team to favoring your team, with 50 balanced and 45–55 described as approximately balanced. It is not an acceptance probability, a prediction of league victory or a validated measure of trade profitability.
Matchup leans and starting goalies
The moneyline baseline compares team records with shrinkage and a home-ice assumption. An experimental goalie scenario can adjust that lean when eligible strength evidence is present; its adjustment is capped at five percentage points, and a projected starter receives half weight. A projected starter remains distinct from a confirmed starter.
Starter reports, source timestamps and cached status should be read with the estimate. Unavailable starter evidence retains the baseline. Injuries are not automatically converted into numerical moneyline adjustments. The simple NHL form table is a separate goals/assists/shots baseline and does not include complete DFS scoring.
Sources and freshness
NHL schedule, game logs, statistics and play-by-play underpin matchup and player history. ESPN supplies available fantasy forecasts, schedules and reported availability. The Odds API supplies sportsbook quote snapshots, with the actual book, exact market and retrieval time shown where available. Starter reports also identify their source.
A successful page load does not mean every feed is current. Each report distinguishes checked, cached, stale, unavailable and unverified information. A failed refresh must not turn missing data into a clean bill of health or an invented quote. Review the timestamps inside the tool before using a result.
Publication and results
Eligible pregame picks and tickets are archived for later grading against official game evidence. Premium preserves its original assessment separately from subsequent reassessments. A whole parlay must win before it can enter the winning gallery, and a winning leg does not become a separate straight when it belonged to a tracked parlay.
Winning Picks History contains winners only. It cannot establish overall hit rate, return on investment or superiority over another service. An illustrative payout includes its stated stake and must be distinguished from an actual accepted sportsbook price. No guaranteed betting edge is claimed.
How to check a surprising result
- Confirm the player identities, league scoring and projection horizon.
- Check source coverage and timestamps for every player.
- Enter retained players, starting slots, required drops and realistic replacements.
- Read the component explanation and player-specific evidence before relying on the summary.